IS THE SUN SETTING ON THE FINE WINE INDUSTRY?

Yes, say the experts... And the root causes might run frighteningly deep, perhaps to the core of civilization itself.

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The poet T.S. Eliot was wrong-- April is not the cruelest month; January is. In northern latitudes, the first day of the new year is marred by a sharp increase in suicides (though these trail off as the month continues). The long, dark days can lower people’s moods, particularly those susceptible to seasonal affective disorder (SAD), a sort of depression. And older people tend to say they are lonelier in the winter months. Adding to this general misery are the exhortations of do-gooders to forgo a warming glass of red wine and instead to observe a “dry January” by abstaining from all forms of alcohol.

Yet it is not just the health-conscious who will be saying no to Bordeaux in January or sniffing at Sauvignon Blanc for the rest of the year. Across most of the rich world, people are drinking less booze of all sorts, with alcohol consumption having fallen in most industrialized countries in the years 2013-23. But wine has been hit particularly hard. The reasons why reveal much about how society is changing.

At the Alyan estate, a small, family-run vineyard in Chile, tourists wander past the swimming pool shaped like a wine bottle, then step inside giant oak barrels converted into a bar. By the third glass, says Andrés Pérez, the owner, strangers from opposite ends of the world will start to open up. By the sixth, they all speak the same language. Wine tasting here is more a carefully curated social event than a lesson in tannins. (Left unsaid is the fact that well-oiled visitors are surely also more likely to splash out on a couple of cases.)

As the visitors take their first sip of the estate’s 2023 Chardonnay, Mr Pérez picks up the microphone. Switching between Portuguese and Spanish, he cuts through the pleasantries with a warning: “The wine industry,” he bellows, “está en crisis.” He is not wrong. In 2024 global wine production fell to its lowest level since 1961 because of heavy rain, frosts and droughts. Yet the problems caused by fickle elements are as old as viticulture itself, and the world is far from running short of wine. In December the European Union, the world’s largest producer, consumer and exporter of wine, reached a preliminary agreement to use EU funds to uproot grapevines in order to reduce the bloc’s wine glut. The industry’s bigger problem by far is that, instead of swirling glasses of wine to release the aroma, increasing numbers of consumers are turning their noses up at them. This is not because of the quality of the wine itself, says Mr Pérez. He reckons that wine’s decline reflects something deeper: a fraying of the social fabric that once held Western societies together.

Alcohol has greased social life for as long as people have known how to ferment it. Beer dominates big gatherings: in one survey respondents in Britain and America picked it as their top choice to drink at barbecues. Beer is also most often involved in binge drinking in America, followed by spirits. Wine is different. Surveys in Britain and America show that it is a top choice for most people, especially women, when having dinner with friends. People also tend to drink it differently, preferring to sip it more slowly with food rather than just knocking it back at parties (though many will have done that, too).

Wine’s special status over other sorts of tipple is almost as old as recorded history. The ancient Greeks and Romans prized it and the Bible is filled with references to it as a symbol of abundance. In the 20th century, as incomes rose and trade expanded, wine became the drink of the new middle class and consumption boomed, says Rod Phillips, a wine historian.

But the habits that propped up the wine boom are fading. The French drink about half as much as they did in the 1970s; Americans and Canadians also drink less. In Britain wine consumption per person has fallen by 14% since 2000 (though the fall in revenue is less pronounced as people switch to more expensive wines). In China, which a decade ago was a major source of growth in the market, wine consumption has since slumped.

At first glance it might appear that this decline is linked to rising awareness of the dangers of alcohol, particularly evidence linking even moderate drinking with a higher risk of getting cancer. Generation Z, those born after 1997, are often described as being more likely to track their sleep than to spend the night at the pub. But Richard Halstead, who researches drinking habits, says there is little sign that they have given up alcohol altogether. They do, however, drink differently, increasingly seeking out quality and novelty, such as sake from Japan or craft beers. They are also less likely than older people to sit down for the drawn-out, communal meals where wine once flowed.

The numbers back this up. Sales of spirits and beer are rising, according to IWSR, a drinks-data firm. Wine is the only big alcohol category that has declined across all price brackets. Sales of the cheap supermarket stuff are expected to continue to drop by 2% a year. At the opposite end, the growth of fine wines is slower than that of beers and spirits. In other words, the fall in wine consumption runs deeper than the broader change in views of alcohol itself. That makes wine’s slump telling, since it also reflects a move away from the slower, shared meals and smaller gatherings that once defined evenings.

People across the rich world increasingly live, and eat, alone. The share of single households worldwide is expected to increase from 28% in 2018 to 35% by 2050, the UN reckons. As a result, more people now eat and unwind in front of screens. In 2023 almost 25% of American adults ate every meal alone on a given day, up from 17% in 2003; among under-30s the share has nearly doubled. That pattern probably holds across much of the rich world, says Jan-Emmanuel De Neve, one of the editors of the World Happiness Report, an annual UN-backed study.

The consequences are measurable. Around one in six people worldwide is lonely, reckons the World Health Organization. In 22 European countries, the share of people who said they were “never lonely” fell from 59% in 2018 to 51% in 2022. The latest World Happiness Report found that across countries and ages, how often people share meals predicts life satisfaction almost as strongly as relative income or employment status.

Anthropologists see the decline in communal eating as part of a broader social unraveling. Marion Demossier of the University of Southampton notes that since the pandemic, her students have become markedly more solitary. Even healthy pastimes are increasingly pursued alone: fewer young people are signing up for team sports (although individual ones such as running or cycling can still be enjoyed in groups). “There is a disconnection in society,” she says. “Living together is eroding.”

Some might expect loneliness to push people to drown their sorrows, but recent research suggests that the opposite is true. A meta-analysis of 69 studies, covering more than 12,000 people in America, Australia, Canada and France, found no evidence that people drank more on the days when they felt glum. In fact, people were up to 28% more likely to drink—and 23% more likely to binge-drink—on days when they were chipper. For some people, drinking is an isolating addiction. But for most it is a social indulgence. And that, increasingly, is what people are missing.

Social unraveling creates health problems of its own. A study published last year in Nature Medicine, a journal, found that living with a partner was roughly as beneficial for longevity as doing exercise was. Regular visits with family, or having someone to confide in, also appeared to lower mortality risks, though it is not clear whether this is because lonely people also tend to eat badly and exercise less.

It would be wrong to minimize the real health risks associated with drinking, particularly as researchers have raised serious doubts over earlier findings of a “J-shape curve” in which those who drink moderately were thought to be healthier than both heavy drinkers and those who abstain entirely. Even so, alcohol itself often provides the lubricant around which many people socialize. Researchers at the University of Oxford noted in a paper published in 2017 that regulars at a local pub are “more socially engaged, feel more contented in their lives, and are more likely to trust other members of their community.”

Some winemakers, such as Mr Pérez, are trying to revive the old habits. His vineyard, like many, once offered hour-long tasting sessions. Now they last four. By the end of the visit, strangers are swapping numbers and shaking hands. Talking over wine used to be routine. It now takes guided tours to bring it back.

Others are trying to adapt to the world as it changes. One idea is to tap into the solo market by experimenting with single-serve packaging. The global market for wine in small cans was worth $113m in 2024. Though still dwarfed by the traditional market, it is projected to grow by more than 11% annually over the next five years. At the Edinburgh Fringe, the world’s largest arts festival and a reliable barometer of cultural angst, the comedian Alexis Dubus captured in verse a sense of just what that says about the modern world: “Is society really so far down the pan that we are actually fine with wine in a can?”

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SO, Dear Readers, if this is actually a real societal trend, that means-- among other things-- that it is now a buyer's market for fine wine, if you know where to look. As we've mentioned in numerous previous essays, there is a side market through which ultra-premium fine wines find their way to consumers at VERY deeply discounted prices. I've personally acquired some serious bargains in the past few months-- a $90 Chardonnay for $18, a $60 Pinot Noir for $10, and even a $250 Napa Cabernet Sauvignon for $25. HERE is a link to an essay with purchasing links.